2013-06-20 Newsflash
本報告純屬研究性質，僅供元大集團內部同仁及客戶參考，不保證其完整性及精確性，且不提供或嘗試遊說客戶做為交易期權之依據。報告中所有的意見與預估，係取自
本公司相信為可靠之資料來源，且為特定日期所為之判斷，有其時效性，邇後若有變更，本公司將不做預告或主動更新。投資人於決策時應審慎衡量本身風險，並就投資
結果自行負責。以上報告內容之著作權屬元大寶來期貨所有，禁止任何形式之抄襲、引用或轉載。本公司不負任何法律責任。101 年金管期總字第 004 號。
第 1 頁，共 3 頁
期貨快報－FED確認退場議題 點燃賣壓出籠
一、研究部觀點:
幾小時前，FOMC 於 2013年第四次利率會議後，發表出一份會後聲明，且伯南克也在隨後的記者會上發表演說，認為經濟若持好轉的話，最快將於今年下半年時縮減購債，並預計2014年中結束QE，使得市場擔憂加劇，亦導致6/19日美股下跌逾1%，為此研究部整理如下數點內容，以掌握即時訊息，聲明如下所述。
1. 美國經濟活動以穩健的步伐持續擴張；勞動市場也進一步改善；房市則持續走強，不過財政政策抑制了經濟成長。
2. FED認為美國經濟未來存有下行風險。
3. 強調每個月將以400億美元購買MBS 和450億美元購買長期國債，亦即延續目前的寬鬆貨幣政策；同時為了因應勞動市場和通膨前景發生變化，已經做好增加或減少購債速度的準備。
4. 重申在失業率降至6.5%或者通膨預期上升至2.5%之前，將繼續維持目前的0-0.25%低利率水準。
5. 本次會議中，反對的委員新增一名(James Bullard)。
6. 若經濟情況持續好轉，FED最快將於今年年底開始縮減購債，預計2014年中將結束寬鬆政策。
7. FED退場不意味拋售其所中握有的資產，僅是放緩購買步調，且不會售出MBS。
總結來看，FED表示美國美國經濟持續穩定成長，且就業市場更進一步改善，房市也都維持成長態勢，並且上調了今年經濟成長率為2.3-2.6%（先前預期為2.3-2.8%），均顯示經濟復甦的一面；同時文中FED再次強調貨幣寬鬆的動作將會持續，且表示當勞動市場或者通膨前景發生變化，也會調整目前購債步調。會議聲明並未提及是否開始縮減購債規模，但伯南克於記者會表示如果委員們認為如果經濟持續改善，將於今年稍晚時後減少購債規模，並於2014年中結束QE，同時也強調這一次將是經濟情勢而定，因為如果經濟改善比預期快，將加速削減購債，相反地，如果經濟惡化，亦會增加購債規模。此外，在FED開始減少寬鬆規模期間不會出售MBS，且強調QE退場不會拋售所持有的資產，而是減少持有，另也表示當失業率降至6.5%後的幾個季度才有可能會加息，目前距離結束資產購買和升息還有一段距離。
FED目前雖仍維持寬鬆規模不變，不過隨著美國經濟持續好轉及勞動市場逐漸改善(預計2013年失業率為7.2-7.3%)，逐漸縮減QE規模的可能性增加，即使不會出售手中資產而是放緩購債步伐，但其引發的心理效應勢必影響到市場情緒，亦不利期指走勢，由6/19日美股的反應可知，此外由於未明確制定減少購債時程表，僅表明所有一切都將視經濟情況而定，這也充滿許多不確定，預料此不安因素將持續導致金融市場波動劇烈，短線期指走勢將傾向震盪，整體波動率有機會增大。
2013-06-20 Newsflash
本報告純屬研究性質，僅供元大集團內部同仁及客戶參考，不保證其完整性及精確性，且不提供或嘗試遊說客戶做為交易期權之依據。報告中所有的意見與預估，係取自
本公司相信為可靠之資料來源，且為特定日期所為之判斷，有其時效性，邇後若有變更，本公司將不做預告或主動更新。投資人於決策時應審慎衡量本身風險，並就投資
結果自行負責。以上報告內容之著作權屬元大寶來期貨所有，禁止任何形式之抄襲、引用或轉載。本公司不負任何法律責任。101 年金管期總字第 004 號。
第 2 頁，共 3 頁
二、以下為本次和上次月聲明稿差異:(註:藍色字體為本次用語，灰色刪除字體則是上次用語)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown some further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences,inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
FED表示經濟活動以穩健的步伐擴張；勞動市場方面，在近幾個月有進一步的改善，但失業率依然高；家庭消費和企業固定資產投資則持續改善。然而房市也進一步成長，不過財政政策抑制了
經濟成長。此外，部分反應了短暫影響，通膨率仍低於FED的長期目標。
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the downside risks to the outlook for economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
關於經濟風險方面，FED 這次用語僅用see 而非先前的continues to see，顯示其立場已不如先前
那麼強烈，亦意味經濟下行風險有所緩和。
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
FED決定繼續每個月以 400 億美元購買 MBS 及 450 億美元的長期的國債。此外，仍將維持目
前所持有聯邦機構債券與機構不動產抵押貸款證券的到期本金，在機構不動產抵押貸款證券政策。
2013-06-20 Newsflash
本報告純屬研究性質，僅供元大集團內部同仁及客戶參考，不保證其完整性及精確性，且不提供或嘗試遊說客戶做為交易期權之依據。報告中所有的意見與預估，係取自
本公司相信為可靠之資料來源，且為特定日期所為之判斷，有其時效性，邇後若有變更，本公司將不做預告或主動更新。投資人於決策時應審慎衡量本身風險，並就投資
結果自行負責。以上報告內容之著作權屬元大寶來期貨所有，禁止任何形式之抄襲、引用或轉載。本公司不負任何法律責任。101 年金管期總字第 004 號。
第 3 頁，共 3 頁
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
FED持續密切關注未來通膨和金融發展，且持續購買資產，直到勞動市場明顯改善；同時當勞動市
場或通膨前景發生改變時，已經做好調整購債速度的準備，以維持適當的寬鬆政策。在討論購買資
產的規模、步伐和內容時，FED將繼續適當地考慮其可能功效和採購成本，以及其經濟目標的發
展程度。
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee
expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as
the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected
to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and
longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum
employment and inflation of 2 percent.
再次重申在失業率降至 6.5%，或者通膨預期上升至 2.5%之前，FED將繼續維持目前的0-0.25%
低利率水準。
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was James Bullard, who believed that the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings, and Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
這次除了Esther L. George 持續反對，原本贊成的James Bullard也投下反對票，認為FED應該有更
強烈的企圖捍衛通膨目標(2%)。
本報告純屬研究性質，僅供元大集團內部同仁及客戶參考，不保證其完整性及精確性，且不提供或嘗試遊說客戶做為交易期權之依據。報告中所有的意見與預估，係取自
本公司相信為可靠之資料來源，且為特定日期所為之判斷，有其時效性，邇後若有變更，本公司將不做預告或主動更新。投資人於決策時應審慎衡量本身風險，並就投資
結果自行負責。以上報告內容之著作權屬元大寶來期貨所有，禁止任何形式之抄襲、引用或轉載。本公司不負任何法律責任。101 年金管期總字第 004 號。
第 1 頁，共 3 頁
期貨快報－FED確認退場議題 點燃賣壓出籠
一、研究部觀點:
幾小時前，FOMC 於 2013年第四次利率會議後，發表出一份會後聲明，且伯南克也在隨後的記者會上發表演說，認為經濟若持好轉的話，最快將於今年下半年時縮減購債，並預計2014年中結束QE，使得市場擔憂加劇，亦導致6/19日美股下跌逾1%，為此研究部整理如下數點內容，以掌握即時訊息，聲明如下所述。
1. 美國經濟活動以穩健的步伐持續擴張；勞動市場也進一步改善；房市則持續走強，不過財政政策抑制了經濟成長。
2. FED認為美國經濟未來存有下行風險。
3. 強調每個月將以400億美元購買MBS 和450億美元購買長期國債，亦即延續目前的寬鬆貨幣政策；同時為了因應勞動市場和通膨前景發生變化，已經做好增加或減少購債速度的準備。
4. 重申在失業率降至6.5%或者通膨預期上升至2.5%之前，將繼續維持目前的0-0.25%低利率水準。
5. 本次會議中，反對的委員新增一名(James Bullard)。
6. 若經濟情況持續好轉，FED最快將於今年年底開始縮減購債，預計2014年中將結束寬鬆政策。
7. FED退場不意味拋售其所中握有的資產，僅是放緩購買步調，且不會售出MBS。
總結來看，FED表示美國美國經濟持續穩定成長，且就業市場更進一步改善，房市也都維持成長態勢，並且上調了今年經濟成長率為2.3-2.6%（先前預期為2.3-2.8%），均顯示經濟復甦的一面；同時文中FED再次強調貨幣寬鬆的動作將會持續，且表示當勞動市場或者通膨前景發生變化，也會調整目前購債步調。會議聲明並未提及是否開始縮減購債規模，但伯南克於記者會表示如果委員們認為如果經濟持續改善，將於今年稍晚時後減少購債規模，並於2014年中結束QE，同時也強調這一次將是經濟情勢而定，因為如果經濟改善比預期快，將加速削減購債，相反地，如果經濟惡化，亦會增加購債規模。此外，在FED開始減少寬鬆規模期間不會出售MBS，且強調QE退場不會拋售所持有的資產，而是減少持有，另也表示當失業率降至6.5%後的幾個季度才有可能會加息，目前距離結束資產購買和升息還有一段距離。
FED目前雖仍維持寬鬆規模不變，不過隨著美國經濟持續好轉及勞動市場逐漸改善(預計2013年失業率為7.2-7.3%)，逐漸縮減QE規模的可能性增加，即使不會出售手中資產而是放緩購債步伐，但其引發的心理效應勢必影響到市場情緒，亦不利期指走勢，由6/19日美股的反應可知，此外由於未明確制定減少購債時程表，僅表明所有一切都將視經濟情況而定，這也充滿許多不確定，預料此不安因素將持續導致金融市場波動劇烈，短線期指走勢將傾向震盪，整體波動率有機會增大。
2013-06-20 Newsflash
本報告純屬研究性質，僅供元大集團內部同仁及客戶參考，不保證其完整性及精確性，且不提供或嘗試遊說客戶做為交易期權之依據。報告中所有的意見與預估，係取自
本公司相信為可靠之資料來源，且為特定日期所為之判斷，有其時效性，邇後若有變更，本公司將不做預告或主動更新。投資人於決策時應審慎衡量本身風險，並就投資
結果自行負責。以上報告內容之著作權屬元大寶來期貨所有，禁止任何形式之抄襲、引用或轉載。本公司不負任何法律責任。101 年金管期總字第 004 號。
第 2 頁，共 3 頁
二、以下為本次和上次月聲明稿差異:(註:藍色字體為本次用語，灰色刪除字體則是上次用語)
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions have shown some further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Partly reflecting transitory influences,inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
FED表示經濟活動以穩健的步伐擴張；勞動市場方面，在近幾個月有進一步的改善，但失業率依然高；家庭消費和企業固定資產投資則持續改善。然而房市也進一步成長，不過財政政策抑制了
經濟成長。此外，部分反應了短暫影響，通膨率仍低於FED的長期目標。
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the downside risks to the outlook for economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
關於經濟風險方面，FED 這次用語僅用see 而非先前的continues to see，顯示其立場已不如先前
那麼強烈，亦意味經濟下行風險有所緩和。
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
FED決定繼續每個月以 400 億美元購買 MBS 及 450 億美元的長期的國債。此外，仍將維持目
前所持有聯邦機構債券與機構不動產抵押貸款證券的到期本金，在機構不動產抵押貸款證券政策。
2013-06-20 Newsflash
本報告純屬研究性質，僅供元大集團內部同仁及客戶參考，不保證其完整性及精確性，且不提供或嘗試遊說客戶做為交易期權之依據。報告中所有的意見與預估，係取自
本公司相信為可靠之資料來源，且為特定日期所為之判斷，有其時效性，邇後若有變更，本公司將不做預告或主動更新。投資人於決策時應審慎衡量本身風險，並就投資
結果自行負責。以上報告內容之著作權屬元大寶來期貨所有，禁止任何形式之抄襲、引用或轉載。本公司不負任何法律責任。101 年金管期總字第 004 號。
第 3 頁，共 3 頁
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
FED持續密切關注未來通膨和金融發展，且持續購買資產，直到勞動市場明顯改善；同時當勞動市
場或通膨前景發生改變時，已經做好調整購債速度的準備，以維持適當的寬鬆政策。在討論購買資
產的規模、步伐和內容時，FED將繼續適當地考慮其可能功效和採購成本，以及其經濟目標的發
展程度。
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee
expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as
the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected
to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and
longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum
employment and inflation of 2 percent.
再次重申在失業率降至 6.5%，或者通膨預期上升至 2.5%之前，FED將繼續維持目前的0-0.25%
低利率水準。
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was James Bullard, who believed that the Committee should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings, and Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
這次除了Esther L. George 持續反對，原本贊成的James Bullard也投下反對票，認為FED應該有更
強烈的企圖捍衛通膨目標(2%)。
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